An Historic Inflection Point

Just twelve days ago I posted that "Iran is making history". Although many of us somehow intuited that our world was on the cusp of momentous changes, we probably didn't realize (at the time) just how earth-shattering they would be, once the dust cleared. The pace of activity picked up (I won't detail it here since there are a plethora of analyses by capable authors one can reference), and just one week after my post, Peter Haenseler via the blog of former CIA analyst Larry C. Johnson summarized the "state of affairs" in the following manner:

No one expected Donald Trump to sign the Memorandum of Understanding (MOU)—especially in Versailles. Iran is taking its place at the big table with the major powers, and the world looks different—we’re asking questions—many of which have no answers.

Although the dust hadn't (and still hasn't) settled, the immediate question on everybody's lips was:

What drove Trump to hurriedly sign the MoU?

The President himself let slip the answer to that question during a masterful display of circumlocution at the following press conference. The answer makes its debut at 2:35😆:



Neither I nor Larry C. Johnson are oil industry specialists, but Larry has conveniently done his homework before I could begin researching the issue (more HERE, and a further update HERE). Coming to think of it, I should just refer you to Larry C. Johnson's blog since he has done a masterful job of following, researching and documenting this entire affair.

I will perhaps end with a segment from another Middle East analyst of the highest caliber, the incomparable Alastair Crooke. in which he quotes a former senior Israeli Iran military intelligence analyst:

An unquestioned dogma has bitten the dust:

“The long-standing expectation in parts of Jerusalem and Washington has been that sustained pressure could lead to regime change in Tehran … [However] the announced agreement suggests a [new] fundamental reality: The campaign that many hoped would weaken or even destabilise the Islamic Republic will instead conclude with the regime intact, strengthened, and formally engaged by the U.S. … [This] amounts to the collapse of a broader strategic assumption: that coordinated American and Israeli pressure could generate conditions conducive to fundamental political change inside Iran. Instead, the likely outcome is the opposite … [it is] an outcome likely to reinforce confidence amongst [Iran’s] ruling elite rather than weaken it …”.
This moment represents a major strategic achievement for Iran: A heroic image is surging across the globe – whereas Israel’s isolation on the Iran issue, even amongst its Gulf allies, has spiked. On the personal level, Netanyahu’s standing in Israel has plunged catastrophically.